Power of Caring
  presented by CIGNA

Posted: Tue May 26, 1998 at 7:13 PM ET

ATLANTA (CNN/SI) -- It seems a little early to be starting the Roger Maris home run watch, but Mark McGwire is forcing the issue.

With 25 home runs in 49 games, McGwire is not only on a pace to break the season-record of 61, he's on pace to obliterate the 37-year-old mark.

The math is easy: 25 home runs in 49 games projects to an 82-home run season. At this rate, McGwire will hit number 62 in the Cardinals' 124th game of the year, scheduled for August 15th!

McGwire is also a threat to break the all-time professional baseball home run record. Seven minor league players hit more than 61 home runs in a season -- one of them did it twice (see chart).

As you follow the home run chase, there are a couple of areas that are often misleading.

Homer kings Minor leaguers to hit more than 61 home runs in a season Year Player Team (Class) HRs 1954 1933 1948 1956 1954 1930 1926 1956 Joe Bauman Joe Hauser Bob Crues Dick Stuart Bob Lennon Joe Hauser Moose Clabaugh Ken Guettler Roswell (C) Minneapolis (AAA) Amarillo (C) Lincoln (A) Nashville (AA) Baltimore (AAA) Tyler (D) Shreveport 72 69 69 66 64 63 62 62

The calendar: Ignore it. When Babe Ruth hit 60 in 1927 and when Maris hit 61 in 1961, the season didn't begin until mid-April. Their April and May home run totals are therefore way below the levels reached in recent years by McGwire and Ken Griffey Jr., when the season began as early as March 31.

In 1927, Ruth had only 16 home runs through May 31 -- in l961, Maris had hit just 12 by the end of May. Conversely, Maris and Ruth's June, July and August home run totals might be higher than McGwire's because of all the doubleheaders played during those seasons. In 1927 and 1961, it was common for a team to play 10-14 doubleheaders a year, most of them coming between Memorial Day and Labor Day.

Today, you rarely, if ever, see a doubleheader on the schedule unless it's to make up a postponed game. On average, a major league team in 1998 will play only one or two doubleheaders in a season. The result: Players are playing more games early in the season and fewer games in the summer months. With the earlier start, home run totals are, naturally, higher for the first two months of the season.

Charting the hits Home run # Ruth (1927) Maris (1961) 30 40 50 60 61 Game #83 120 138 154 -- Game #75 96 125 159 163

Game number is the key: The most accurate gauge to use in measuring the home-run chase is game number (see charts).

Expansion year myth: Don't get caught up in the expansion year and diluted pitching theory to explain McGwire's season. That was a common argument used to discredit Maris when he broke Ruth's record. But the numbers don't support it. The following chart shows very little difference in the caliber of pitching that these homers have been hit against.

25 and counting Games to reach 25th homer: Player Year Game # Babe Ruth Roger Maris Mark McGwire 1927 1961 1998 70 63 49

In 1927, Ruth hit the most home runs (four) against Philadelphia A's left-hander Rube Walberg, a 16-game winner that season. The Babe also hit three off of Tommy Thomas (Chicago, 19-16, 2.97), two off of Hod Lisenbee (Washington, 18-9, 3.57) and one each off of Ted Lyons (Chicago, 22-14, 2.84) and Lefty Grove (Philadelphia, 20-13, 3.19).

In 1961, Roger Maris hit three home runs against Frank Lary (Detroit, 23-9, 3.24) and one each against such pitchers as Chuck Estrada (Baltimore, 15-9, 3.69), Don Mossi (Detroit, 15-7, 2.96), Camilo Pascual (Minnesota, 15-16, 3.46), Jim Grant (Cleveland, 15-9, 3.86), Juan Pizarro (Chicago, 14-7, 3.05), Milt Pappas (Baltimore, 13-9, 3.03) and Dick Donovan (Washington, 10-10 with a league-leading 2.40 ERA).

Giving it up A look at who the sluggers faced (McGwire through May 25): Player (Year) HRs Pitchers Wins-Losses (pct.) ERA Babe Ruth (1927) Roger Maris (1961) Mark McGwire (1998) 60 61 25 34 47 23 360-387 (.482) 387-414 (.483) 51-41 (.554) 4.13 4.04 4.31

So far in 1998, McGwire has reached the seats against seven-game winner Kevin Millwood (Atlanta), six-game winner Ramon Martinez (Los Angeles), five-game winner Rick Reed (New York) and bullpen aces Rod Beck (Chicago) and Robb Nen (San Francisco).

Sure, all three have hit home runs off some of the lesser pitchers in the league, but in all three years -- expansion season or no -- about one-sixth of their homers have come against some of their league's best pitchers.

Baseball fans and analysts have been arguing for 37 years over who had the better season, Ruth or Maris. Remember the asterisk that was added to the record book after Maris broke the record, because of the longer 162-game season?

McGwire stacks up Home runs per at-bat and per plate appearance: Player (year) HR/AB HR/PA Ruth (1927) Maris (1961) McGwire (1998) 9.0 9.7 6.3 11.5 11.4 8.6

You could win the argument either way by using the right numbers. Ruth had the better season if you go by at-bats per home run. But add in walks, hit-by-pitch and sacrifices and Maris has the better number for plate appearances per home run.

If McGwire keeps this up, there will be only one single-season home run king.

Enjoy the chase!

Pete Van Wieren is in his 22nd year calling play-by-play action of the Atlanta Braves on TBS. His column appears every Tuesday on CNNSI.com.