59 and counting
How many will Mighty Mac hit?
Posted: Thursday September 03, 1998 06:01 PM
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One projection has McGwire hitting No. 62 and breaking Maris' record Thursday at Cincinnati AP |
MIAMI (AP) -- Numbers get crunched every time a pitch gets crushed by
Mark
McGwire, and the latest projections show him finishing with 69 homers,
70, 77 or perhaps 105.
The only consensus is that barring injury, McGwire is certain to break
Roger Maris' 37-year-old record of 61 home runs, perhaps this weekend.
The first baseman who looks like a weightlifter made a stadium shake
Wednesday, sending fans into a frenzy by hitting two tape-measure home runs
for the second consecutive night against the Florida Marlins. That
gives Mighty Mac 59 going into a three-game series against Cincinnati
beginning Friday in St. Louis.
Since Maris doesn't seem to stand a chance, the greater drama may be
whether McGwire can stay ahead of Sammy Sosa, who
hit No. 56 Wednesday.
Both sluggers failed to homer Thursday, but in their defense, their
teams had the day off. The pause in the race allowed time for a little
back-to-school math:
With 23 games remaining, McGwire is
averaging a home run every 2.4 games. At that pace, he'll hit 69
homers.
McGwire homered 15 times last September. If he
duplicates that finish, he'll hit 70.
McGwire has 12 homers in
the past 16 days. At that rate he'll finish with 77.
On Tuesday
and Wednesday, McGwire had consecutive two-homer games for the first time
as a Cardinal. If he keeps up that pace -- two homers per game -- he'll hit
105.
Sosa clearly has his work cut out for him.
"I'm not trying to catch Mark McGwire," he said. "Mark's the man."
One projection has McGwire breaking Maris' record Thursday at
Cincinnati. But the Cardinals slugger dislikes speculation about the timing
of No. 62.
"When it's meant to be done -- if it's meant to be done -- it will be
done," he said. "When? I think everybody will know."
It should be noted that all projections may be skewed because
McGwire's most recent games were against the Marlins, who have the worst
pitching staff in the NL. Neither he nor Sosa faces Florida again this
season.
The last-place Marlins deserve credit because they pitched to McGwire.
They just didn't do it very well.
"Given our situation, why wouldn't we pitch to him, really?" general
manager Dave Dombrowski said.
McGwire's four moonshots over Miami averaged 469 feet. He went
5-for-11 in the three-game series with four walks, raising his average to
.299. His 145 bases on balls lead the majors.
"He hasn't lost his patience," Florida manager Jim Leyland said. "He
hasn't expanded his strike zone. He's not panicking."
"It astounds me how strong his mind is," Cardinals manager Tony La
Russa said. "His mind is actually stronger than his body."
And his body inspires awe. Players on both teams were astonished by
homer No. 58, a sinker from Brian Edmondson that was inside and, according
to McGwire, three inches off the ground.
"My first reaction was, 'Why did he swing at that pitch?'" Edmondson
said. "Then I turned and just couldn't believe how high and far it
went."
The homer, which landed in the upper deck in left field, was estimated
at 497 feet.
An inning later, when McGwire stepped to the plate again, catcher Randy Knorr was
still shaking his head about the homer.
"How did you hit that pitch?" Knorr asked.
"I have no idea," McGwire said. Then came the next pitch:
Another homer. If McGwire keeps up that pace ...
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