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2001-02 season could have a similar look

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By Albert Lin, CNNSI.com

If the Glance learned one thing this year, it's this: Trust your instinct. A year ago at this time we tabbed Duke as the early favorite for the 2001 title. Last fall we again named the Blue Devils preseason No. 1. Then we spent an entire season, right up to the bitter end, trying to explain why they wouldn't win it all.

Now we know better.

So without further ado, we present our preseason top 10 for the 2001-2002 season. Because it's never too early to talk about next year. (Keep in mind that we are projecting who will or will not leave early for the NBA draft.)

Preseason Top 10

1. Florida
The Gators' future was on display last Wednesday at the McDonald's All-American Game, where recruits Kwame Brown (6-11), David Lee (6-8) and James White (6-7) dazzled all in attendance. Recall, if you will, that Florida's shortcoming this season was lack of frontcourt depth. Well, no more. With Brett Nelson, Teddy Dupay, et al on the perimeter plus Udonis Haslem and Matt Bonner returning up front, this is a potential juggernaut. Caveat: If Brown, reportedly the highest-rated high school player in the eyes of NBA scouts, jumps -- which we don't think is terribly likely -- then the Gators slide a few notches.

2. Maryland
Oh, did we come close to handing Gary Williams' crew the top spot. With only Terence Morris (virtually useless) and Mike Mardesich (virtually useless) departing from the 10-man rotation, the Terps should be dynamite. The graduations simply give the tougher Tahj Holden and Chris Wilcox more playing time. Maryland's three most important players -- Lonny Baxter, Steve Blake and Juan Dixon -- will anchor the starting five for the third straight season. Intangible: Programs that get over the hump, like the Terps did in reaching the Final Four, tend to reap benefits immediately, especially if just about everyone is back.

3. Kentucky
Assuming the Wildcats only lose one Smith (Saul, not Tubby), they should be right there. Saul Smith's graduation might actually lift a weight off this team. Tubby Smith had to work five first-year players into his lineup, and by the end of this season Kentucky was playing as well as anyone. Keith Bogans and Tayshaun Prince made quantum leaps during the year but neither one is NBA-ready, which is good news for the Wildcats. A solid recruiting class brings 3-point gunner Rashaad Carruth, adding a dimension lacking the past couple seasons. Plus, added motivation comes in the form of Rick Pitino's return to the college sideline -- at hated rival Louisville.

4. Michigan State
Four straight Final Fours? It could happen. The Spartans will have a decidedly younger look come the fall, but no less talented. If Jason Richardson stays (and he still really needs to improve that jumper), get a load of this starting lineup: PG Marcus Taylor, SG Kelvin Torbert, SF Richardson, PF Al Anagonye, C Zach Randolph. Off the bench come big bodies Adam Ballinger, Jason Andreas and Adam Wolfe, plus athletic recruit Alan Anderson. Rookie sensation Torbert has a lot of subtle facets to his game that take some time to appreciate, but watch him over the course of a month and you'll be amazed.

5. Missouri
One of our favorite teams from this past season finds its way into the top five. Only steady point guard Brian Grawer and big man T.J. Soyoye graduate, and the Tigers will be bolstered by their second straight boffo recruiting class. Missouri will have ample size (Arthur Johnson, Travon Bryant, incoming freshman Jeffrey Ferguson), athleticism (Justin Gage, Rickey Paulding and freshmen Najeeb Echols and Duane John), scoring punch (please-oh-please-stay Kareem Rush and Clarence Gilbert), and whirling-dervish leadership (Wesley Stokes). If Missouri somehow decides to still take Robert Whaley -- and we don't think it should -- the Tigers will be even stronger.

6. Kansas
As with Maryland, the Jayhawks' fortunes may be another case of addition by subtraction. Say goodbye to Eric Chenowith and Kenny Gregory, which means the rising-junior class of Nick Collison, Drew Gooden and Kirk Hinrich takes over. Recruit Wayne Simien gives the frontcourt another bruiser, and Aaron Miles will allow Hinrich to play some off the ball. Sophomore-to-be Bryant Nash didn't see much time but is as good an athlete as Gregory. With every play now running through Collison and Gooden, Kansas will be fun to watch.

7. Memphis
This ranking is a bit of a flyer, based largely on the incredible ability of superstar-to-be Dajuan Wagner. The Tigers have other weapons -- Earl Barron, Modibo Diarra, Scooter McFagdon and Kelly Wise, plus newcomers Arthur Barclay, Duane Erwin, Chris Massie and Anthony Rice -- but Milt's little boy will lead this team. Wagner is physically mature and has an Iverson-like ability to beat people off the dribble and get to the whole. Now he's added 25-foot range on his jumper, which should make him unstoppable. Though not a true point guard, he can also defend when inspired and dish when the opportunity arises. If John Calipari can piece together the puzzle around him, Memphis residents will quickly forget their new NBA team.

8. UCLA
The Bruins have one major loss in Earl Watson and potentially another in Jason Kapono (didn't you learn from JaRon Rush?), but they should be able to reload accordingly. The post looks strong with Dan Gadzuric, Matt Barnes and T.J. Cummings, plus recruit Michael Fey. With or without Kapono, Billy Knight, Ray Young and newcomers Spencer Gloger (Princeton transfer), Andre Patterson and Dijon Thompson man the wings. Replacing Watson is the question mark. Freshman Cedric Bozeman is a talent, but he's also more of a combo guard than a true point. No one else on the roster is capable of stepping in, so UCLA will sink or swim with Bozeman.

9. Iowa
The Hawkeyes won the Big Ten tournament without Luke Recker, so his return will only bolster them. As with UCLA, losing a senior point guard, Dean Oliver, is the real killer. Also like the Bruins, Iowa has a freshman replacement, Pierre Pierce, who is more of a combo guard. Rising sophomore Brody Boyd could be the primary ballhandler, but that might detract from his strength (shooting). Every other position is set, and unlike UCLA the Hawkeyes won't be counting on as many newcomers. Jared Reiner, Reggie Worley, Glen Worley, Courtney Scott and Sean Sonderleiter allow Iowa to bang with the best, and the perimeter is steady with Duez Henderson, Ryan Hogan and recruit Marcellus Sommerville, in addition to Recker.

10. North Carolina
The Tar Heels' only graduation loss (Brendan Haywood) is a big one, literally more than figuratively. (We're not counting Max Owens.) Matt Doherty prefers an up-tempo style, so Haywood's departure will free up the offense. As long as Joseph Forte comes back, UNC has a fighting chance. The rest of the starting five returns intact, and the Heels will make their move once reinforcements Ronald Curry and Julius Peppers arrive from the football team. Brian Morrison should see more playing time, and Doherty's heralded first recruiting class, Jackie Manuel, Melvin Scott and Jawad Williams, will help begin the next era of North Carolina basketball.

Special Mention

Duke
As long as Jason Williams stays, the Blue Devils are a threat. Unfortunately, despite his public comments, we don't think he has any reason to. Also, Carlos Boozer's comments Monday night sounded like those of a man who will not be around come the fall. The Blue Devils will still be good with Chris Duhon, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Rutgers transfer Dahntay Jones, Casey Sanders, Matt Christensen and Nick Horvath, but the difference between good and Atlanta is Williams. As Duke proved late in the season, Boozer's absence is not as important, though he is obviously a skilled player.

Arizona
The Wildcats also have a chance to be in Atlanta if everyone returns. Loren Woods was the only senior starter, and Lute Olson has brought in another top-notch recruiting class. But Gilbert Arenas and Richard Jefferson don't seem long for Tucson, leaving Jason Gardner and Michael Wright to pick up the pieces. The cupboard is not bare -- Luke Walton, versatile Travis Hanour, redshirt Andrew Zahn, plus five big-time recruits (Will Bynum, Isaiah Fox, Channing Frye, Dennis Latimore and Salim Stoudamire) can all play. But we have to wait on defections before we can slot the Wildcats.

Possible Breakthroughs

Alabama
Recruit Maurice Williams, a point guard with terrific range, teams with Rod Grizzard, Gerald Wallace and Terrence Meade on the perimeter. Erwin Dudley and Kenny Walker man the post.

Georgetown
Ruben Boumtje Boumtje, Nat Burton and Lee Scruggs are gone, but everyone else is back. Many youngsters gained valuable experience, and (mea culpa, Hoyas fans) point guard Kevin Braswell returns for his senior season.

Indiana
The entire starting five returns intact. Jared Jeffries should blossom into a star. And let's not underestimate the importance of a coach's job security.

Notre Dame
Contingent on Troy Murphy passing up NBA dollars for one more season. Martin Inglesby is the only graduating starter, and McDonald's All-American Chris Thomas looked terrific last Wednesday.

Stanford
If the better of the Collins twins (sophomore Jason) doesn't depart along with his graduating brother (Jarron) and Casey Jacobsen remains in school, the Cardinal will still be tough. Three talented recruits join an already deep bench.

Temple
Quincy Wadley departs; no doubt John Chaney will find someone to fill his shoes. This season's NCAA tournament run should give the Owls something to build on next season.

Texas
Incoming jet T.J. Ford takes the reins of a team that was loaded with freshmen and juniors this season (i.e., everybody is back). A year's experience should do wonders for all the youngsters.

Virginia
Donald Hand is a huge loss, but the point should be in good hands with Majestic Mapp and recruit Keith Jenifer. The remaining starters return, and freshman Elton Brown will help Travis Watson down low.

 

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