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Three teams on the bubble

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By Aaron Sharockman, Special to CNNSI.com

The season is winding down and there are still a lot questions to be answered. The biggest being which of the three NCAA bubble teams (Michigan, Illinois and Indiana) is going to step up and seal a bid? And is there room for all three? Iowa use to be on the bubble list clogging the middle of the conference, but a six-game win streak including victories over Penn State and Purdue, has put aside any postseason doubts for the Hawkeyes.

It wasn't funny after all

"We're excited about the season," said Consuegra, sitting awkwardly at an empty table, with me, my prodding recorder and Iowa backcourt mate Lindsey Meder. "We think we can surprise some people, but a lot depends on how well we can adjust and continue to adjust. An NCAA tournament berth is not out of the picture."

That was in October -- listening to the tape in November when I put together a piece on the Hawkeyes, I chuckled when I heard Consuegra's line. To me, it was funny. I saw a 9-18 1999-2000 record, a new coach, and an empty table at media day and thought: this is a .500 team at best (I actually wrote that, check my season outlook for Iowa, Nov. 29).

Well, oops.

With super output from her three seniors (Meder, Consuegra and Mary Berdo ) and the surprising play of undersized big-woman Randi Peterson, coach Lisa Bluder has an NCAA Tournament team on her hands.

And everyone, except the Hawkeyes, are left to shake their heads.

Iowa (14-8, 9-3 Big Ten) has won its past six games, none bigger than last Thursdays 96-87 win against Purdue. In the win, which put the Hawkeyes in a tie for second place in the Big Ten, scored 29 points, while Berdo added a career-high 23 points. Iowa never trailed in the win.

Meder was named Big Ten player of the week Monday for her efforts, and Iowa moved into the Associated Press top 25, at No. 25. The Hawkeyes rank No. 26 in the RPI poll and boast the 12th toughest schedule in the country.

All the attention after months in the void is nice, Bluder said, but nothing too important. The prominence of a national ranking won't distract her team, she said.

"It's nice, but that wasn't one of our goals," Bluder said. "Our goals are in the Big Ten standings and the NCAA Tournament. But it's a nice by-product. I don't want the players to feel added pressure of a ranking."

After not thinking a tournament berth was possible, Iowa could be conceivably a No. 4 or No. 5 seed if they win their remaining regular season games (Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, and Illinois) and win once in the Big Ten tournament.

At the worst, they're probably a seven-seed; not bad for a team that not many thought would be playing basketball in March.

Big Tens most valuable

So you would think Big Ten player of the year would be a lock. Well, maybe, but its going to be a closer battle than many might think.

If anyone has a chance of beating Douglas, it's Wisconsin forward Jessie Stomski. Stomski leads the Badgers in points (15.9) and rebounds (8.2) and has the Badgers in the nations top 25. If it was based only on statistics, Stomski would compare favorably with Douglas. Here are the individual Big Ten rankings: Scoring -- Stomski No. 5, Douglas No. 15; Rebounds -- Stomski No. 3, Douglas not ranked; Field Goal Pct. -- Stomski No. 12, Douglas not ranked; Assists -- Stomski not ranked; Douglas No. 14.

"If we can finish this year out like we want to, I think Jessie is a player of the year candidate," Basger coach Jane Albright said. "People always talk about Katie Douglas and all she does for the team, but Jessie really her numbers are phenomenal and consistent.

"She just wants our team to win so badly. She has no desire for the individual things. When she was player of the week, I sent her a little thing congratulating her, and she said the best thing about it was helping her team win three games that week."

But stats aren't the only criteria coaches and media use.

The next thing to do is look at the team records. This is where Douglas picks up points. The Boilers are 22-4 and 12-1 in the conference while Wisconsin is 15-8 and 9-4 in the Big Ten. Purdue is the better team and a legitimate contender for the national title -- that boosts Douglas stock tremendously.

Everybody's talking about her numbers being down -- and they are down, Purdue coach Kristy Curry said. But she is doing so many other things that are valuable to this team.

Michigan State coach Joanne McCallie, who has seen both Douglas and Stomski, said the award is Douglas -- without a doubt.

"Just given there success, Katie Douglas has to be right there," McCallie said. "Unless Purdue falls apart in the next few games, she's going to get it hands down."

Big finish

INDIANA (16-7, 7-5) -- Why they should be in: A big win against then-No. 20 Wisconsin gave IU the upset win they needed to solidify their chances. Their RPI is good and an opening-season win against Washington (No. 23 in the AP poll) helps. A last-second loss to Louisiana Tech also helps their resume.
Why they should be out: Their tied for sixth in the Big Ten, only the fourth best conference in the country. Indiana has had troubles squeaking out wins against Michigan State and Minnesota, the Big Tens doormats.
The skinny: Indiana is in the best position to make the dance. They play host to both Michigan and Illinois. Beat them both, clean up an easy win against Northwestern, and they're in.

MICHIGAN (15-9, 8-5) -- Why they should be in: Wins against LA Tech and Penn State look very impressive on the Wolverines resume. Plus beating Illinois twice really puts Michigan a notch above the Illini. The selection committee looks hard at head-to-head battles. Plus the Wolverines are playing well, 7-3 in their last 10 games.
Why they should be out: You can't lose to Marquette, Ohio State and Holy Cross and expect to make the NCAA Tournament. Despite a solid stretch recently, you cant explain a loss to Holy Cross especially with postseason implications in play.
The skinny: Michigan has three games left against Iowa, Indiana and Penn State -- a great chance to make the tournament. Winning two of three and then a game in the tournament is probably enough for Michigan. The Indiana game is must, though.

ILLINOIS (12-12, 7-5) -- Why they should be in: Look at their schedule. Theresa Grentz loaded the youthful Illini with the nations powerhouses. UConn, Tennessee, Georgia, Texas -- plus all of the Big Ten competition. Wins over Clemson, Penn State and Missouri show this team can win.
Why they should be out: Well, at 12-12 they're barely legal for the tournament. And it has nothing to do with three losses to the nation's top 5 teams. When you play a tough schedule, you need to beat teams like DePaul, Northern Iowa and Kansas. Win those three games, Illinois is a lock. Lose them, and they don't deserve to play in March.
The skinny: Illinois is in trouble. They probably need to win their last four games, including trips to IU and PSU, to make it in. If they lose once, only a run at the Big Ten tourney could save them.

Aaron Sharockman is a reporter for theIndiana Daily Student, the student newspaper serving Indiana University.

 

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