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New season is almost here
Posted: Thursday October 14, 1999 03:14 PM
Click here to send a question to Phil Taylor's NBA Mailbag. Training camps have opened and everyone has questions about his or her favorite teams. I'll save my predictions on the championship and the major awards until we get closer to the regular season -- mainly because I haven't figured them out yet -- but here are a few thoughts on some of the teams you folks have been asking about.
Two questions about the Magic: 1) Can they win some games this year playing the "Kentucky" style, (i.e., using 12 guys, pressing everywhere, hoping the shots fall)? Seems like they have the energy guys to try it. 2) Is there any chance Tim Duncan or Grant Hill is going to take a look at the big bucks the Magic are sure to offer them in the off-season, or is that a pipe dream? Can they win some games? Yes. Can they win many games? Afraid not, James. The Magic's roster is a collection of journeymen and role players, and no matter how much they hustle (and with guys like Darrell Armstrong, Matt Harpring and Michael Doleac, I'm sure they will hustle), I don't see how they're going to win more than 30-35 games without at least one big-time player. That's why they're putting all their eggs in the Duncan-Hill basket. It's way too early to really gauge their chances, but Duncan signing there is at least plausible. Orlando is the kind of mid-level city he likes, it's relatively close to his home of St. Croix, and with David Robinson getting older, it's not like he has a lot of great players beside him in San Antonio. As for Hill, the only way he'd go to Orlando is if Duncan signs there first, and Orlando would really have to pull off some salary-cap magic to make that work. At this point the whole thing is a longshot, but I think things are going to be so dismal for the Magic this year that their fans aren't going to have anything better to think about.
Are the Kings for real, or do you think last year was a fluke? I know the addition of Nick Anderson makes their lineup more formidable, but can they expect Chris Webber, Vlade Divac and Jason Williams to duplicate their performances from last year? I'm pretty high on the Kings, mainly because they were one of the few teams that went out and filled their most glaring holes during the off-season. They needed another veteran and they needed an established shooting guard, and in Anderson they got both. The Kings suddenly have a very solid starting lineup and a decent bench. Anderson is a good friend of Williams, so his presence should help Jason settle down a bit and continue to improve. Divac was sensational last year, especially in the playoffs. He may not quite be able to keep up that level, but I can see Webber being even better, especially since he's not itching to get out of Sacramento anymore. The Kings are setting 50 wins as a goal this year, and even though the Western Conference is stacked, I'd say they have a realistic chance to get there.
On paper, the trades made by the Blazers seem to make them the team to beat this year. Do you think that they are, in fact, the favorite to win the title, or do you believe that they may have actually acquired too much talent (not enough shots to spread around to keep everyone happy) for their own good? There is such a thing as too much talent, and the Blazers look like they might be a good example of that. With Scottie Pippen, Rasheed Wallace, Damon Stoudamire, Steve Smith and Brian Grant, they have five players good enough to make the All-Star Game, but some of those guys are going to really have to take a step back and become role players. We've already seen that Damon isn't willing to do that, and I don't think Pippen or Wallace would be too crazy about it either. I'm a believer in having just a couple of players who everybody knows are the main men, then surrounding them with players who are good at playing their roles. I think that keeps things simple and helps eliminate ego problems and personality conflicts. I also think that Pippen, while still a fine, versatile player, is showing signs of age and isn't nearly worth the huge money he's now making. I wouldn't be surprised to see his body break down over the course of a full season. All of that makes me think that the Blazers aren't going to go all the way. It might be a lot like last year, when they blew through the regular season, but when they got in a tough playoff series, they realized that they didn't really know whose team it was.
Do you think the Indiana Pacers are still top contenders this season with all of the changes made, such as the trade of Antonio Davis and bringing Chris Mullin off the bench? And what do you think the effect of Larry Bird leaving after this season does to the team? You can't classify the Pacers as an elite team anymore. They're a team in transition. With Rik Smits being a shadow of the player he used to be and with Mullin's effectiveness diminishing, this looks like a team that is too far past its prime to contend. Making Jalen Rose a starter should help, but Rose has never been a consistent, 35-minute-a-night player in this league. I'm hearing great things about Jonathan Bender, the 6'11" high-schooler they got, but it's hard to imagine he's going to make a huge difference as a rookie. I'm sure they'll want to send Bird off on the right note, but there's only so much they can do. Last year they were disappointed to only reach the second round of the playoffs, but if they make it that far this year, it will be cause for celebration.
What are your feelings about Randy Moss inquiring about a spot on the Timberwolves roster? Do you think he has a legitimate shot? Would it be feasible for a professional football player to compete in an aerobic-type sport such as basketball? And what are your thoughts about the T'wolves' chances in the stacked Western Conference? He's such a great athlete that if he says he wants to try it, the T'wolves would be foolish not to give him a look. But I think the chances of Moss being able to make an NBA roster would be slim and none. I just can't imagine he could pick up a sport he hasn't played seriously since high school and be as skilled as guys who have been sharpening their games nonstop. I think Michael Jordan proved how hard that is to do with his baseball experiment. How about this compromise: invite Moss to the slam-dunk contest at the All-Star Game. I'd pay to see that.
Why doesn't Garry St. Jean ever go after the big name player(s) the Warriors need to win? Or rebuild the team as Phil Jackson is doing now with the Lakers? Will the Warriors ever get the "post-Webber" era they once had? The Warriors are in a tough position in that they are a bad team without a lot of salary-cap room. They were really banking on being able to sign Mitch Richmond, who led them to believe he was interested. But it turns out Richmond was just trying to drive up his market value by letting it be known Golden State wanted him. As for trades, I know a lot of Warriors fans thought G-State could have offered more in return for Steve Francis than Houston did or more for Pippen than Portland did. But you have to remember that guys like Chris Mills and Donyell Marshall, their most tradable players, have hefty long-term contracts that make them less attractive to other teams. You can't really lay all the blame on St. Jean, since he inherited a bad situation, but the really top personnel people -- Pat Riley, Jerry West, etc. -- find a way out of those situations. That, in my opinion, is the Warriors' real problem: It's not so much that they have ordinary players, which they do, it's that they have an ordinary front office.
How much longer will the Dallas Mavericks stand for Don Nelson's lack of improvement? He hasn't improved the team since he arrived. Leon Smith? Shawn Bradley? Robert Pack? The list is endless. Let's put it this way: The Mavs had better get off to a decent start this year. If they're 6-20 or thereabouts, I don't think Nellie will have a job past the All-Star break. It's pretty telling that the owner, Ross Perot Jr. , has refused to comment on Nelson's status. I really think that Nellie has become kind of a mad scientist who would rather have an interesting, quirky team than a conventional, successful one. The two key names for the Mavericks: Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki. Those are the two guys they brought in and expected big things from last year, and they were both very disappointing. If they're busts again this year, Nellie is going to take the fall. If I were a betting man, I'd wager that Nelson will be back at his home in Hawaii before season's end.
Do you think that the off-season acquisition of Ike Austin is enough to get the Wizards to the playoffs? If he can get back to form (reports say he has rededicated himself), he should free up Mitch Richmond, Rod Strickland, Richard Hamilton, etc., and allow Juwan Howard more single teams. One of the big mysteries this season is whether Austin is going to get back to playing the way he did for the Heat two years ago. I've talked to people around the league, and half of them think he's going to bounce back, and half think he'll never be that good again because his fat contract has taken away the fire in his belly. If he's anything like he was for Miami, Washington could really make some noise in a weak conference. But the Wizards always seem to be less than the sum of their parts. Take Strickland, for instance: He's obviously talented, but he's not the kind of leader a veteran point guard like him should be. He doesn't take care of his body, which is one of the reasons he seems to get more than his share of muscle pulls. He hasn't learned that talent doesn't solve everything, and neither have the Wizards, so far. On a team like this, I'm not sure who's going to give Austin the kick in the pants that he seems to need. My guess is that they might play well enough to make the playoffs, but they won't do much once they get there.
Click here to send a question to Phil Taylor's NBA Mailbag, and check back Thursdays during the season to see his answers.
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