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Inside dope Race for Cup unfortunately down to positions 2-10Posted: Tuesday August 12, 2003 3:17 PM
With Matt Kenseth firmly in control of the points race, the battle for the remaining nine seats at the dais for the year-end banquet will come down to what Kenseth has become so deft at producing -- consistency. Here is one man's opinion of how the Cup championship chase will shake out and each driver's chances of possibly challenging for the Cup should Kenseth falter down the stretch:
One item of note, Rusty Wallace is 108 points out of 10th place. He has not finished outside the top 10 in points since 1992, when he was 13th. Now competing in his 20th full Cup season, Wallace has finished out of the money only three times, including his first two seasons (1984-85). If Wallace fails to mount a challenge over the next three-plus months, it won't be because history is against him. Wallace has 36 career wins on the remaining 14 tracks, including seven at Bristol; six each at Richmond and Martinsville; and five at both Michigan and North Carolina. Sad as it is, by the time Labor Day comes and goes, Wallace's quest for a top 10 finish may be the sport's most alluring storyline. So with the championship chase all but over, is it any wonder NASCAR is openly acknowledging a possible change to the points system? Does it surprise anyone that a one-horse race has become bad for business? Was it bad for the sport when Dale Earnhardt was winning seven titles, or Jeff Gordon's four? Or is it a change that needs to be addressed so that more of the marquee drivers are still in the hunt when Halloween rolls around? Everyone has an opinion, some more valid than others, but I do not believe NASCAR wants to tilt the field to favor Dale Jr. or Gordon or any other driver. What NASCAR wants -- and needs, because of the length of its season -- is a chase that rollicks and rolls from February through November. As it is now, one driver's consistency is another driver's wait 'til next year. B. Duane Cross is a senior producer for SI.com.
Got a comment or question for Duane? Click here.
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1.) Matt Kenseth -- NASCAR's worst nightmare: The trophy is already at the engraver. Nothing like having 6,200 miles to go and the front-runner turning stay-out-of-trouble laps for three months.
2.) Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- Little E had only 124 points through two races. By comparison, Kenseth tallied 278. That 154-point difference is known as "What could have been ..."
3.) Kevin Harvick -- Only two finishes outside the top 10 in the past seven races, Harvick is on the move. After a fourth-place finish at Daytona, he was outside the top 10 in 11 of the next 14 races.
4.) Jimmie Johnson -- A remarkable rookie season backed up with two wins, five top 5s and nine top 10s. After winning the Coca-Cola 600, he failed to finish higher than 12th in the following five races.
5.) Jeff Gordon -- A roller coaster year with 11 top 10s, The Kid has been in the top 5 in points since April 6. Problem is: Kenseth took the points lead March 9 and hasn't looked back for 18 races.
6.) Bobby Labonte -- Another of the woulda, coulda, shoulda drivers, Labonte once looked primed to make a run at Kenseth. He has now failed to finish higher than 14th for five consecutive weeks.
7.) Michael Waltrip -- Talladega looms, so you know he has at least one more good run in him. After his season-opening win at Daytona, he has only seven top 10s, fewest among the contenders.
8.) Kurt Busch -- What a difference a year makes. After racking up four wins in 2002, Busch is now in the shadow of Roush Racing teammate Kenseth. Anyone notice Busch does have three wins?
9.) Ryan Newman -- Speaking of oft-overlooked, Newman has a series-high four wins. But it comes down to consistency; six finishes of 38th or lower offset all the gains he made in Victory Lane.
10.) Tony Stewart -- Only 77 points out of the top 10 entering Michigan, the defending Cup champion feels good about his chances of securing a spot in the top 10 by season's end.
