Spring into autumn

Exhibition games rarely have carryover effect

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The 1991 Minnesota Twins were the last team to parlay the best spring record into a division title and a World Series crown. Rick Stewart/Allsport

By Lonny Krasnow, CNNSI.com

Anyone looking for the next World Series champion should not waste too much time studying the spring training standings. Heading into the final week of Grapefruit and Cactus League action, the Baltimore Orioles (16-9) and San Diego Padres (15-9) have the best exhibition records.

Are we going to see either of these teams in October? Yeah, right.

CNNSI.com's Ozzie Smith ranks the Orioles last and the Padres 28th in his Spring Rankings. Sports Illustrated has the Padres last and the Orioles 29th in its preview issue.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees share the worst spring mark at 8-17.

Spring-board? Best exhibition records since 1980 Year Team   W-L  Pos. 2000  Athletics   20-11   1st   2000  Astros   20-11   6th   1999  Royals   22-9   4th   1998  Red Sox   20-8   2nd   1997  Marlins*   26-5   2nd   1996  Angels   20-10   4th   1995  Rangers   26-12   3rd   1994  Mariners   21-9   2nd   1993  White Sox   20-13   1st   1992  Expos   20-12   2nd   1991  Twins*   21-10   1st   1990  Padres   12-2   t-4th   1989  Padres   18-8   2nd   1988  Yankees   22-10   5th   1987  Cardinals   17-6   1st   1986  Pirates   16-10   6th   1986  Phillies   16-10   2nd   1985  Blue Jays   19-9   1st   1984  Giants   18-9   6th    1983  White Sox   20-7   1st   1982  Braves   18-7   1st   1981  Tigers   23-11   4th   1980  Twins   15-6   3rd    *won World Series

So what do exhibition records mean? Not much. The purpose of spring training is for players to shake off the rust, and for managers to determine who plays where. Winning comes right after identifying a fifth starter and getting a good tan.

Very little correlation exists between a team's success in spring training and its performance during the season. Only twice in the past 20 seasons has the team with the best spring training mark gone on win the World Series -- the '91 Minnesota Twins and the '97 Florida Marlins, who took the wild-card route to the postseason.

The New York Yankees dropped their first six exhibition games last season, finished 13-21, and then proceeded to win their third consecutive World Series title. Conversely, the Houston Astros went 20-11 in March before a dismal 72-90 campaign to open the Enron era.

Spring statistics are just as deceiving. Hitters might be experimenting with a new stance or working on going to the opposite field. Pitchers are just trying to build up their arm strength and maybe develop a new pitch.

Managers tend to discount spring training stats, unless a player really stands out like San Diego's Johnny Roskos did last year. The non-prospect hit .458 with four homers in 21 games last spring, but he had only one hit in 27 at-bats in the regular-season. This year Roskos is having an ordinary camp and is likely headed back to the minors.

The Balance Sheet A look at how the past 20 World Series champs fared in spring training games compared to the regular season: Year  World Series Winner  Spring W-L  Exhibition Winning Pct.  Reg. Season Winning Pct.  2000  New York Yankees  13-21   .382  .540  1999  New York Yankees  14-19   .424  .605  1998  New York Yankees  15-12   .556  .704  1997  Florida Marlins  26-5   .839  .568  1996  New York Yankees  16-15   .516  .568  1995  Atlanta Braves  17-21   .447  .625  1993  Toronto Blue Jays  11-19   .367  .586  1992  Toronto Blue Jays  13-18   .419  .593  1991  Minnesota Twins  21-10   .677  .586  1990  Cincinnati Reds  9-7   .563  .562  1989  Oakland Athletics  19-13   .594  .611  1988  Los Angeles Dodgers  21-11   .676  .584  1987  Minnesota Twins  14-10   .583  .525  1986  New York Mets  13-13   .500  .667  1985  Kansas City Royals  12-15   .444  .562  1984  Detroit Tigers  11-17   .393  .642  1983  Baltimore Orioles  15-11   .577  .605  1982  St. Louis Cardinals  13-11   .542  .568  1981  Los Angeles Dodgers  12-14   .462  .573  1980  Philadelphia Phillies  10-9   .526  .562

 

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CNNSI.com's Spring Training Coverage CNNSI.com's Ozzie Smith: Spring Rankings Sports Illustrated's 2001 Baseball Scouting Reports
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